Ok, I admit, I've become a poll junkie. I read electoral-vote.com (state poll roundup) multiple times daily and the last few days my mood has been markedly improved (really!) by John Kerry's post-debate bounce. But the best news comes from Mystery Pollster [via], who says to ignore the Kerry vs. Bush numbers and focus mainly on Bush's share. An interesting read, here's the key claim:
Posted by marstall at October 4, 2004 02:03 PM
If the average result of all the final polls (including undecided) puts Bush's percentage at 50% or higher, the President will likely win. If Bush's percentage is 48%-49%, the race is headed for a photo finish. At 47% or lower, the President will likely lose (add 1% to these ranges in any state where Ralph Nader is not on the ballot)